tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post111828328015577724..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Betting SummaryJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-21325918227431717322011-06-08T04:15:35.844+01:002011-06-08T04:15:35.844+01:00I have been tracking wagers on the subject of clim...I have been tracking wagers on the subject of climate change. Thank you for your list. I have it on warmwagers.org and I have my own $1,000 wager listed.Desertphilehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11147186765682027417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-24139396654911016562011-05-22T10:27:13.504+01:002011-05-22T10:27:13.504+01:00I think you may have lost your status as the clima...I think you may have lost your status as the climate bettor with largest amount at stake.<br /><br />Stoat now appears to have a $10,000 dollar bet on arctic sea ice with Rob Dekker.<br />http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2011/05/sea_ice_part_2.php#comments<br /><br />Or there is me with approaching $3000 won and $5000 currently at stake on short term bets, I think I must have staked over $10,000 in total.<br /><br />Of course, I prefer the measure of amounts won ;)crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-78602483922390529882008-04-17T01:19:00.000+01:002008-04-17T01:19:00.000+01:00dang, where'd _that_ spewdonym come from? some old...dang, where'd _that_ spewdonym come from? some old file from the early Blogger.<BR/> <BR/>c'est moi -- Hank RobertsUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12972130383828143841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-88170269835213655202008-04-17T01:18:00.000+01:002008-04-17T01:18:00.000+01:00“At this point we can’t say for sure that this is ...“At this point we can’t say for sure that this is the result of global warming, but I think it is,” says Caldeira. “I would bet that the trend in the jet streams’ positions will continue. It is something I’d put my money on.”<BR/><BR/>http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-04/ci-cjs041608.phpUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12972130383828143841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-6345008862024422642008-04-11T14:12:00.000+01:002008-04-11T14:12:00.000+01:00TBH I expect he'd just bluster in a typically tabl...TBH I expect he'd just bluster in a typically tabloid way.<BR/><BR/>I can only afford to do bets where the money's not upfront - done a couple with mates on trust, though. Somehow I doubt McKenzie would go for one of those, but I've emailed him. I'll post here if I get a response.skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76582387263163277242008-04-11T12:46:00.000+01:002008-04-11T12:46:00.000+01:00Let us know how you get on with him :-)Let us know how you get on with him :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-30769277000933196052008-04-11T11:28:00.000+01:002008-04-11T11:28:00.000+01:00More from that esteemed journal, The Sun:http://ww...More from that esteemed journal, The Sun:<BR/>http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kelvin_mackenzie/article578227.ece<BR/><BR/>Do you think he's confident enough to bet money?skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-50324156682658885522007-10-16T17:42:00.000+01:002007-10-16T17:42:00.000+01:00Well Steve Milloy still has a mighty fine offer ov...Well Steve Milloy still has a mighty fine offer over at Junkscience.com, <BR/><BR/>I don't understand Richard Lindzen backing down, looks like he made a mistake. Perhaps because of the term significant? 10 yeahs is too short for that, though that never stopped James Hanson.<BR/><BR/>It looks like he is offering exactly what you want and you don't need to even put up your own money.Wondering Aloudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06186442151908575760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-49373358246573859032007-07-08T13:02:00.000+01:002007-07-08T13:02:00.000+01:00Hank, I've already covered that here.Hank, <BR/><BR/>I've already covered that <A HREF="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2007/06/more-on-20000-bet.html" REL="nofollow">here</A>.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85447841082106109772007-07-08T12:59:00.000+01:002007-07-08T12:59:00.000+01:00From Hank Roberts---I trust you've heard by now ab...From Hank Roberts---<BR/><BR/>I trust you've heard by now about this advertising/marketing expert at Wharton? He wants a bet on ten specified weather station temperature averages over ten years, with Al Gore. I guess Lord Whatsisname's handed off to him for now.<BR/><BR/>http://theclimatebet.com/2007/07/06/how-would-you-respond/#more-20<BR/><BR/>My reply there is pending moderation; I'm sure you can do better! I wrote:<BR/><BR/>Jul 8th, 2007 at 11:44 am (must be UT)<BR/><BR/>Seems a ten year trend would be a 50:50 bet, even if the entire data set were used. Small signal in a noisy environment:<BR/>http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/05/the_significance_of_5_year_tre.php<BR/><BR/>The professor seems to be confusing weather and climate. Nobody claims to be able to make ten year weather forecasts, anywhere.<BR/><BR/>He’s challenging whether any “global climate model” can make pinpoint ten year weather predictions. What part of “global” isn’t understood here?<BR/><BR/>He’s asking people to focus (for ten years) on only ten instruments, throwing out virtually all the information available, asking to bet only a tiny subset of the available information.<BR/><BR/>A very small signal will be lost in the annual variability. This is well known in climate history; see note 33 here: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm#N_33_<BR/><BR/>Only with a very large collection of data can a small signal be reliably detected in a noisy environment, as mentioned here for example:<BR/>http://tamino.wordpress.com/2007/07/05/the-power-of-large-numbers/<BR/><BR/>As marketing this is very clever.Hank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1146094543036554072006-04-27T00:35:00.000+01:002006-04-27T00:35:00.000+01:00Coby,Brian already tried him.Coby,<BR/><BR/>Brian <A HREF="http://backseatdriving.blogspot.com/2006/04/bob-carter-wont-bet-over-global.html" REL="nofollow">already tried him</A>.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1146090367534420402006-04-26T23:26:00.000+01:002006-04-26T23:26:00.000+01:00James, have you tried Bob "warming stopped in 1998...James, have you tried Bob "warming stopped in 1998" Carter?cobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042136876169040477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-1118431352325664222005-06-10T20:22:00.000+01:002005-06-10T20:22:00.000+01:00James- This is really great stuff. I will discuss...James- This is really great stuff. I will discuss this over on our blog next week. Meantime, have a look at this:<BR/><BR/>http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/zine/archives/31/editorial.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com