tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post111692321318465173..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Yet more betting on climate with World Climate ReportJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-56057556858597482692008-05-12T04:06:00.000+01:002008-05-12T04:06:00.000+01:00The ad hominem attacks suggesting that those who d...The ad hominem attacks suggesting that those who disagree with you are corrupt suggests an emotional level to your approach which diminishes your credibility. Why not rely on your data analysis. The fact that personal attacks are a small percentage of your approach does not take away from its significance.<BR/><BR/>Tom ConnorsTomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03241471419687399459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13284880589069059252008-05-12T04:04:00.000+01:002008-05-12T04:04:00.000+01:00Your ad hominem attacks suggesting that those who ...Your ad hominem attacks suggesting that those who disagree with you do so for corrupt reasons, suggests an emotional approach which diminishes your credibility. Why not rely on your data analysis. The fact that your ad hominem attacks are 1 or 2 percent of your comments does not diminish their significance.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03241471419687399459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-11257724983241946772008-01-09T15:21:00.000+00:002008-01-09T15:21:00.000+00:00James,Now comes an update to my previous update:It...James,<BR/><BR/>Now comes an update to my previous update:<BR/><BR/>It turns out there likely is NOT a warm bias at the end of the UAH MSU TLT data (instead there may be a cold bias in the RSS data). This means we were much further from winning our bet than I initially thought. Using the most recent UAH TLT data, the January 1998 to December 2007 (linear) trend is a (non significant) postive trend of 0.04C/decade. This trend is actually not far from what you may have expected given a continued warming following the relaxation from the El Nino highs coupled with the 1998 start date. Perhaps, the post 2002 period is somewhat interesting, but it is still too early to tell.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/><BR/>-ChipChip Knappenbergerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10580051919422845463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-26247521386376469762008-01-08T21:26:00.000+00:002008-01-08T21:26:00.000+00:00Interesting exchange, and it is nice to see the fo...Interesting exchange, and it is nice to see the follow up. FYI, more somewhat related here:<BR/><BR/>http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/001313forecast_verificatio.htmlRoger Pielke, Jr.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04711007512915460627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43096440904431923762008-01-08T01:38:00.000+00:002008-01-08T01:38:00.000+00:00Hi Chip,Thanks for the update. I must admit I am a...Hi Chip,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the update. I must admit I am a little bit surprised that the trend stayed so low/negative (depending on the choice of data) - although only slightly, cos I never did any serious calculation on that detail. Perhaps you now wish you had tried to negotiate a bet with me back in 2005 :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85625039700321488592008-01-07T20:07:00.000+00:002008-01-07T20:07:00.000+00:00James,Just a quick update on how things would have...James,<BR/><BR/>Just a quick update on how things would have worked out for WCR’s proposed bet. The RSS TLT data show a non-significant (p=0.28) overall downward trend of about -0.006C/yr from Jan 1998-Dec 2007. The UAH TLT apparently has a spurious warming during recent months that will likely be corrected for in some fashion in the future, so I don't think that I can yet accurately assess the trend from that record. But, I would guess that it too, will prove non-significant.<BR/><BR/>So, we would have lost our bet, but, actually, not by all that much...another 3-4 months with anomalies like the last two months would push the downward trend to being significant at the p<.05 level.<BR/><BR/>Not that we know whether that will happen or not (although the tendency of the monthly data over the past 3 years suggests that it is not out of the question) just that (as luck would have it?) it didn't turn out that we were ludicrously off base.<BR/><BR/>-ChipChip Knappenbergerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10580051919422845463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-67407554559534173242007-04-09T23:04:00.000+01:002007-04-09T23:04:00.000+01:00Geoffrey,About 95% of my post is focussed on clima...Geoffrey,<BR/><BR/>About 95% of my post is focussed on climate science, only 1.5 lines refer to the fact that WCR is a coal industry front. The latter fact is the best explanation I can think of as to why they got the climate science so spectacularly wrong, but the wrongness of the climate science itself is the main point.<BR/><BR/>I was thinking of updating this graph. Any guesses as to whether the trend will be more "statistically significant downward"?James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-66755500687156000162007-04-09T16:06:00.000+01:002007-04-09T16:06:00.000+01:00It's odd that the Exxon Secrets website doesn't sa...It's odd that the Exxon Secrets website doesn't say how much money they get from Exxon and other corporations. I've seen environmentalists make the same ad hominem attacks on Pat for his affiliation with Cato, but <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cato_Institute#Funding" REL="nofollow">Cato apparently only gets a mere 2% of its funding from corporations</A>. That Exxon Secrets site is useless and disingenuous.<BR/><BR/>If your case is so strong, why do so many enviromentalists (including yourself) rely so heavily on ad hominem attacks against skeptics' source of funding? It certainly isn't an example of rational discourse.Geoffrey Allan Plauchehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02929659205687989312noreply@blogger.com