A couple of weeks ago, commenter David Young was scathing of the threat of COVID-19. Look at the EUROMOMO web page, he said.
"there is no evidence I could see that mortality is above the expected numbers over the last few weeks."
"Italy does show a spike the last few weeks but well below the peak in 2016-17."
Moreover, this is all backed up by impeccable analysis from Nic Lewis and we know how good he is. he has looked at the Diamond Princess which had only 8 deaths out of 700 cases, mostly old, and without a single death in the 60-69 age bracket, he has shown the fatality rate is negligible.
Well, let's see how this stacks up a full 2 weeks later.
Week 14 in EUROMOMO is now out. Click for full size.
They've literally had to rescale their axes for multiple countries to keep the death numbers on the plot. Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and England are all at or above their highs from the cold 2016/17 spell. And this is after a few weeks of lockdown that has stopped the death rates from zooming up higher.
And as for the Diamond Princess, there are actually 12 deaths now from the 700 cases, including one in the 60-69 age range of 200 cases. An empirical fatality rate of 0.5%. According to David, Nic said the death rate was 0.11% for this age group, but what's a factor of 4 between friends?
I expect David will appear shortly and acknowledge that he was wrong and that Nic massively underestimated the death rate and that in fact mortality across much of Europe is at an extremely high level despite strong attempts to suppress the epidemic. I can see his flying pig coming in to land right now..