tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post8593645380412162660..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Publication limboJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-89721053346618952302010-10-08T15:34:16.284+01:002010-10-08T15:34:16.284+01:00Belette, I also know now, having had my guess conf...Belette, I also know now, having had my guess confirmed :-)<br /><br />Jo...getting very warm there...<br /><br />RB,<br /><br />To be honest, I don't really think the models are truly statistically indistinguishable from the truth, I'm really just trying to promote it as the appropriate standard that the ensemble should be tested against (in contrast to than the bizarre and useless truth-centred idea). [I'm surprised and encouraged as to how well the tests have worked out so far, but that doesn't actually make it *true*.]<br /><br />However, the distribution of sensitivites of the CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) models does actually form a pretty plausible distribution IMO, albeit a bit bumpy. The values (of 19 models available at that time) are listed in a table in Chapter 8. There is no reason to expect them to be spread uniformly.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-26073782527713545722010-10-07T01:23:25.357+01:002010-10-07T01:23:25.357+01:00James,
I've been discussing your use of rank ...James,<br /> I've been discussing your use of rank histogram to show that models are reliable at the Air Vent. Here's a question: you've shown that based on the rank histogram, the various models are statistically indistinguishable. You've also shown that climate sensitivity is most likely 3C per doubling but it is not uniformly distributed over the range 1.5C - 4.5C. Are the two conclusions consistent with each other? In other words, why would you not expect to see uniform distribution for sensitivity over the 1.5C-4.5C range.<br /><br />RBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43396392610816289452010-10-07T00:15:40.056+01:002010-10-07T00:15:40.056+01:00Whose opinion on Climate Sensitivity would Climati...Whose opinion on Climate Sensitivity would Climatic Change wish to publish alongside yours ? Counterpoint ? Corroboration ? Something to do with satellite data ? Hmmm...no ! really ?jo abbesshttp://www.joabbess.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-70774995004474194392010-10-06T14:27:40.394+01:002010-10-06T14:27:40.394+01:00I know! I know!I know! I know!William M. Connolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05836299130680534926noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-63600017723965842422010-10-06T11:54:30.282+01:002010-10-06T11:54:30.282+01:00SB is closest, but still not quite there, assuming...SB is closest, but still not quite there, assuming my guess is correct...sometimes reality really does beat anything that a fiction writer might consider...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-19700854796905693172010-10-05T21:49:59.567+01:002010-10-05T21:49:59.567+01:00I would guess issues of fitting a collection of ar...I would guess issues of fitting a collection of articles into journal issues which have specific restrictions on the number of pages per issue; multiple of 8 or something similar.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-45616266589427615362010-10-05T20:03:29.611+01:002010-10-05T20:03:29.611+01:00Waiting to publish it with other material in a sim...Waiting to publish it with other material in a similar vein? CC seems to do a lot of that.<br /><br />But actually I'm surprised that the hard copy would make any difference these days.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.com