tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post8246038494429350425..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: AGU part 2James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-48392536340309178932010-12-28T03:54:18.062+00:002010-12-28T03:54:18.062+00:00"probably most people vote based on other pri..."probably most people vote based on other priorities anyway"<br /><br />Sure, but do scientists vote based on the science?Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-66637535182353788962010-12-24T07:22:34.921+00:002010-12-24T07:22:34.921+00:00Regarding alarm and alarmism, given where we are n...Regarding alarm and alarmism, given where we are now I'm not averse to a bit of Overton-window-shifting. OTOH it is important that people are not either so far to the left of the window that they are talking to the wall, or perhaps the metaphor should be jumping through the window...<br /><br />What was particularly disappointing (in hindsight) in that panel discussion is that apparently none of the panel knew that the infamous "no scientists are Republicans" result was actually based on a survey of AAAS members, and therefore probably not representative of scientists at all. I do, however, find the anti-intelligence wing of the Republican party (or perhaps it is their base these days) to be a particularly odious phenomenon and can understand it being unattractive to many scientists, and indeed intelligent people in general. Of course the Democrats are not unimpeachable either, and probably most people vote based on other priorities anyway...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85000889740445968162010-12-23T11:58:19.864+00:002010-12-23T11:58:19.864+00:00Ah, so that was what the 'sadly deranged proph...Ah, so that was what the 'sadly deranged prophets of doom' was all about it... Now I get it. Thanks for the link.<br /><br />Well, I've read it and that sure was a tragic speech. Especially if he turns out to be right, but of course he won't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-5417477357309068962010-12-22T11:25:15.988+00:002010-12-22T11:25:15.988+00:00Uncertainty seems to be comforting to many people,...Uncertainty seems to be comforting to many people, it scares me. If I put my money in a bank and it was highly uncertain how much I would get back, I would take it out of that bank.<br /><br />Regardless of the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, there are several aspects of global warming that are very certain. CO2 is rising, as predicted. The current temperate rise is most likely due to the rise in CO2. The Arctic ice trend is down. Radiative physics says it will get warmer.<br /><br />That we don't know with certainty by how much worries me.<br /><br />Anon(1)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-50061074239797425532010-12-22T09:40:32.099+00:002010-12-22T09:40:32.099+00:00James,
As you surmised I did not catch Craven'...James,<br /><br />As you surmised I did not catch Craven's first performance I was hanging out in a GIS session. I've said my piece on his second performance. It's enough for me to say that I would rather listen to Tim Palmer or Oppenheimer. I had a nice lunch with Palmer, Webster and Curry. Since the time you mentioned (thank you) the seminar at the Newton Institute I've scoured their site and looked forward to meeting Palmer. I think it's fair to say that Tim is one of the people who gets the message of Climategate. More care paid to uncertainty would be a good thing. That's it. In one sentence. The whole of climategate. Time to move on.stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06920897530071011399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-4118308295122423362010-12-21T22:46:57.960+00:002010-12-21T22:46:57.960+00:00> Betz
Looks like the first link I left at MT&...> Betz<br /><br />Looks like the first link I left at MT's earlier gets mangled at the site, try this; either of these might be along the same lines as the paywalled paper<br /><br />http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/4490/1/paper_pluralpossibilities.pdf<br /><br />VARIETIES OF POSSIBILITY: HOW ITERATED MODALITIES SOLVE A METHODOLOGICAL DILEMMA OF SIMULATING UNDER UNCERTAINTY<br />GREGOR BETZ (UNIVERSITÄT STUTTGART)<br /><br />http://www2.lse.ac.uk/CPNSS/projects/CoreResearchProjects/ContingencyDissentInScience/DP/BetzOnlineModalFalsification.pdf <br />Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science Contingency and Dissent in Science Technical Report 03/07<br />What range of future scenarios should climate policy be based on? – Modal falsificationism and its limitations Gregor BetzHank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-87830487180398067202010-12-21T19:20:32.320+00:002010-12-21T19:20:32.320+00:00Given all the BS climate change and other areas of...Given all the BS climate change and other areas of science (e.g. evolutionary biology) have had to endure from Republicans; isn't it sensible to point out that they are irrational? Or do you think that being nice to Republicans (as Obama has tried for two years) means you'll lure them over to the side of actual science (as opposed to "Creationsim" et al)?<br /><br />(Thankfully I work in seismology now; and even the most knuckle-draggin' Jefferson-hating Texan doesn't deny there are earthquakes...)Carl Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14717209873111026574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12996104740162375132010-12-21T18:11:47.482+00:002010-12-21T18:11:47.482+00:00James,
You lasted longer than me. I walked out af...James,<br /><br />You lasted longer than me. I walked out after he started opining that there aren't many republican scientists because republicans are fundamentally irrational. On a panel about improving climate science communication...Zekehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09757819498566612533noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-33468413493275990012010-12-21T17:59:35.380+00:002010-12-21T17:59:35.380+00:00As Ray P. says, we should be alarmed, and I suppos...As Ray P. says, we should be alarmed, and I suppose as the numbers of the alarmed grow we should also expect more hysterical outbursts. I'm not sure they're a bad thing, taken as a whole, since they serve as a reminder of how much is at stake.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-18027078228571139592010-12-21T16:38:08.161+00:002010-12-21T16:38:08.161+00:00Thanks, James. :^)
-ChipThanks, James. :^)<br /><br />-ChipChip Knappenbergernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-71942614537843121882010-12-21T06:28:33.018+00:002010-12-21T06:28:33.018+00:00Marco, I think Chip's summary is pretty fair, ...Marco, I think Chip's summary is pretty fair, though I also think the main authors made life difficult for themselves by stretching the results to their limit and a few more qualifications could have been made. I'm confident that the methodology and results are basically sound.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-32042009636930355002010-12-21T06:24:46.677+00:002010-12-21T06:24:46.677+00:00I walked out at the point of his confrontation wit...I walked out at the point of his confrontation with that woman, due to the combination of cringeworthiness and time wasting. And in answer to David, well he's no-one I should care about, and having had his 15 minutes, I hope there isn't much more to say on the matter.<br /><br />Judith's talk is on the web and I'll probably say more about it later, in conjunction with Betz which I believe may also be available somewhere, if only I could remember where :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-69562766681324360972010-12-21T01:26:44.233+00:002010-12-21T01:26:44.233+00:00I missed Greg's talk but I watched in horror a...I missed Greg's talk but I watched in horror as he hogged the limelight during the panel discussion. When he told that equal opportunities lady to stop talking all I could do was cringe and face palm simultaneously. Did you stick around for the moment when Greg gave Jim Hansen a note for him to read out on his behalf? Heidi Cullen first refused to read it, but Jim accepted. That was just weird. The note itself was short, highly self referencing, and basically I'd like to say more but I've said too much already, and thus a bit pointless. Greg is citing lack of sleep and stress; I would note that he seems reasonably lucid in his youtube videos.<br /><br />Part of me was still giving Judith Curry the benefit of the doubt regarding her tendency to opine on matters without supporting her statements with fact, and was assuming that she was perhaps having trouble expressing this information in blog format. Your report of her talk is just one more example though that she is quite comfortable being fact free, or at least fact-lite, wrt her opinions.<br /><br />Paul HAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-65078265011796714892010-12-20T23:07:57.813+00:002010-12-20T23:07:57.813+00:00Who is Greg Craven that I (or you) should care?Who is Greg Craven that I (or you) should care?David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-22428570729393133452010-12-20T22:13:34.321+00:002010-12-20T22:13:34.321+00:00Well, it could have been hysterically funny. But a...Well, it could have been hysterically funny. But although it had its moments, in the end it wasn't. The letter also looks like the work of a drama-queen - I would advise a better strategy would be to go away and hide under a rock for a few weeks.<br /><br />Hank, love the pic. We were neither groped nor exposed, as it happens, as nothing seemed to be set up at SF.<br /><br />Marco, I am searching for my round tuit...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-44426305127747135212010-12-20T16:20:23.933+00:002010-12-20T16:20:23.933+00:00James said:
"It tended rather to the hysteri...James said:<br /><br />"It tended rather to the hysterical, and I don't mean that in a good way."<br /><br />Under what conditions might you have meant it in a good way?Tom Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03793192912187740419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-91535487443554993862010-12-20T11:40:15.372+00:002010-12-20T11:40:15.372+00:00So: been there, done that; did you get the t-shirt...So: been there, done that; did you get the t-shirt?<br />http://images.vogue.it/imgs/galleries/peole-are-talking-about/zoom/004153/shirt4-311737_0x440.jpgHank Robertshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07521410755553979665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85450239249384163492010-12-20T11:26:19.405+00:002010-12-20T11:26:19.405+00:00Greg Craven wrote an emotional open letter about ...Greg Craven wrote <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/18/agu-fall-meeting-part-iii-an-open-letter-from-greg-craven/" rel="nofollow"> an emotional open letter about his disastrous talk</a> on Judith's blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-9881338881295000352010-12-20T06:25:40.512+00:002010-12-20T06:25:40.512+00:00Chip's comment can be found here (with a comme...Chip's comment can be found here (with a comment from me right after):<br />http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/2010/12/tony-gilland-time-to-move-on-from-ipcc.html?showComment=1292515463147#c3286621267814413145Marcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07262670367947223521noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-87762075381295697872010-12-20T02:23:35.140+00:002010-12-20T02:23:35.140+00:00Marco,
It was a long time ago and I haven't l...Marco,<br /><br />It was a long time ago and I haven't looked at them since (or read Chip's latest, do you have a link?) but the reviewers had their backs put up by Michaels et al pushing their results rather harder than I would have done had I been writing it.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-22209685643588896102010-12-19T22:31:33.751+00:002010-12-19T22:31:33.751+00:00Thanks for the reminder - I knew that the best way...Thanks for the reminder - I knew that the best way to get info out of the internets is to make a false assertion and wait for the correction :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-53229760794606989702010-12-19T22:21:35.971+00:002010-12-19T22:21:35.971+00:00"She also talked about the "modal falsif...<i>"She also talked about the "modal falsification" of Betz 2009, (which I haven't read but just googled now, is there a free version somewhere?)"</i><br /><br /><a href="http://www.simtech.uni-stuttgart.de/publikationen/prints.php?ID=20" rel="nofollow">Yes</a>... I'd like to be so busy that I forget what I <a href="http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2010/11/curry-cannot-back-down.html?showComment=1289266740479#c451226755361772298" rel="nofollow">read two months ago</a> :-)... maybeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-76420567220495057362010-12-19T21:49:24.024+00:002010-12-19T21:49:24.024+00:00IIRC Hansen didn't have to go into 1984 mode u...IIRC Hansen didn't have to go into 1984 mode until that little run-in with the NASA bureaucracy a few years back. :)Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-8486523268257264922010-12-19T21:48:09.301+00:002010-12-19T21:48:09.301+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27454698945245373652010-12-19T12:32:24.960+00:002010-12-19T12:32:24.960+00:00s/1984 mode/1984 model/
I expect.s/1984 mode/1984 model/<br />I expect.Nick Barneshttp://climatecode.org/noreply@blogger.com