tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post8140405694570521349..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Where's the beef, Curry?James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-49180584781256418562010-12-02T23:01:55.697+00:002010-12-02T23:01:55.697+00:00Agreed. There is still nothing there.Agreed. There is still nothing there.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-18001793255619048542010-12-02T14:40:52.431+00:002010-12-02T14:40:52.431+00:00hmmm... confusion... still no beef...<a href="http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/28/waving-the-italian-flag-part-i-uncertainty-and-pedigree/#comment-17569" rel="nofollow">hmmm</a>... confusion... still no beef...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-70612734046722678822010-11-12T12:54:24.541+00:002010-11-12T12:54:24.541+00:00Thanks James,
And as I don't think I've e...Thanks James,<br /><br />And as I don't think I've ever said it: Thanks to both you and Jules for an interesting (science) and well shot (photos) blog.<br /><br />Chris.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-77202925923239115072010-11-12T01:49:29.346+00:002010-11-12T01:49:29.346+00:00Chris,
You can see our contribution to the discu...Chris,<br /><br />You can see our contribution to the discussion at the discussion page of that paper. We haven't decided if it is worth officially responding to, but may do this, especially as some significant changes were made to the manuscript subsequent to the open discussion phase (ie without us being able to debate them, as we were not officially involved as reviewers).James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-11403380904171577072010-11-11T19:04:11.602+00:002010-11-11T19:04:11.602+00:00James,
Off topic, but I've followed the Annan...James,<br /><br />Off topic, but I've followed the Annan and Hargreaves (successful IMHO) attempts to pin down the range of climate sensitivity.<br /><br />I've just come across "Comment on “Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity”" by Henriksson et al 2009 in Climate of the past discussions: http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/5/2343/2009/cpd-5-2343-2009.pdf<br /><br />Apologies if you've already addressed this, but I can't find the reponse. Could you direct me to where you've responded?<br /><br />Chris RAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-60904059987571498602010-11-11T11:26:34.268+00:002010-11-11T11:26:34.268+00:00Michael, if you follow my links to my previous pos...Michael, if you follow my links to my previous posts, you'll see that I am by no means hostile to the principle of it. My criticism is that Judith Curry's attempts at using it appear incoherent and nonsensical, and she has repeatedly chickened out of explaining what she means by it.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75865474481155134492010-11-11T10:49:12.267+00:002010-11-11T10:49:12.267+00:00Since I was the person who initially raised the me...Since I was the person who initially raised the methodology of evidential reasoning as a potentially valuable approach to capturing and communicating uncertainty in climate science, I would suggest that this is a topic for serious consideration rather than derision. <br /><br />Yes, the "Italian flag" nickname is vulnerable to satire, but the underlying principle is a powerful one. Rather than operating in a space of 2 components - the chance of something happening and one minus that (by definition, itself unexamined)- it operates in a 3-component space comprising evidence for, evidence against, and a gap in the middle that represents uncertainty/the unknowns.<br /><br />The mathematical foundation of this methodology has long been established and it is routinely applied in a wide variety of contexts where a thorough means of capturing uncertainty is required. See, for example, http://www.quintessa-online.com/TESLA/ESLGuide.pdf and a quick Google of "evidential reasoning" will demonstrate applications and value. <br /><br />I am a geologist, not a climate scientist, and have no wish to participate in this blogospheric fray. However, in following some of these threads, and attempting to sort the wheat from the chaff, my preference is for serious treatments of serious topics.Michael Wellandnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-68965806490007073522010-11-07T21:47:14.817+00:002010-11-07T21:47:14.817+00:00It shows a certain chutzpah to make a claim, givin...It shows a certain chutzpah to make a claim, giving no evidence whatsoever, and then dismiss counter-examples as "anecdote"Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16914264739638166750noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-57650435311701625692010-11-07T10:17:56.357+00:002010-11-07T10:17:56.357+00:00Lazar,
Interesting idea, but I don't think I&...Lazar,<br /><br />Interesting idea, but I don't think I'd go for that. The IPCC drafts were really "not for public dissemination" (even though freely available, at least at that time) and it would be hard to do a post without explicitly quoting from them. Alluding to some changes (which can be found by people sufficiently motivated) is one thing, putting them up front in a post is another. Especially as they are things the IPCC didn't actually say, in the end!James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-91224552089549593912010-11-07T02:18:48.697+00:002010-11-07T02:18:48.697+00:00Its called the Gish gallop.Its called the <i>Gish gallop.</i>David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-40728433782076877202010-11-07T01:53:15.058+00:002010-11-07T01:53:15.058+00:00Lazar,
Thanks for that clarification. This email ...Lazar,<br />Thanks for that clarification. This email doesn't directly speak to Judith's argument, so I can't expect her to respond to it fairly, although a case could be made that both participants also work on the IPCC and their conversation treats the dissenters fairly. It could squeeze the cadre that much smaller. ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-39028706578774231282010-11-07T00:35:11.382+00:002010-11-07T00:35:11.382+00:00:-D
Thank you, Undetached Rabett Parts.:-D<br /><br />Thank you, Undetached Rabett Parts.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumbrl.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85956497119148215942010-11-07T00:00:29.323+00:002010-11-07T00:00:29.323+00:00Maybe she should try this
http://www.xtranormal.c...Maybe she should try this<br /><br />http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7521585/EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-64123634227328211382010-11-06T23:29:32.247+00:002010-11-06T23:29:32.247+00:00Grypo,
I have been answered today:
http://judith...Grypo,<br /><br />I have been answered today:<br /><br />http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/05/no-dogma/#comment-8771<br /><br />The answer:<br /><br />> i saw that, couldn’t make any sense of it, which is the main problem I have with mt’s site<br /><br />Such is life, I guess.willardhttp://neverendingaudit.tumbrl.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-36353511856599246742010-11-06T22:44:04.636+00:002010-11-06T22:44:04.636+00:00Although hard to believe for us lifers, Curry has ...Although hard to believe for us lifers, Curry has not been an active participant in the climate blogs until now, and appears unaware of much that is old stuff to us. Unfortunately she has chosen the wrong advisers who are feeding her nonsense, and she has not started to check up on them. As Eli said. . .EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-22291826008692790972010-11-06T13:29:40.564+00:002010-11-06T13:29:40.564+00:00gryposaurus,
I think that exchange refers to a re...gryposaurus,<br /><br />I think that exchange refers to a report by the former U.S. Climate Change Science Program... now Global Change Research Program.<br /><br />But yeah... Wigley was a contributing author on three TAR chapters and one AR4 chapter... and is a class act imho.Lazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-72607875316431629642010-11-06T12:49:00.695+00:002010-11-06T12:49:00.695+00:00Also, I posted a link after she said:
...read the...Also, I posted a link after she said:<br /><br />...read the emails...<br /><br />when pushed on the 'dissenters' point. <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/03/reversing-the-direction-of-the-positive-feedback-loop/#comment-8082" rel="nofollow">So I posted an email </a> with Jones and Wigley discussing the dissenters portion of the IPCC. I asked her if this fit her description of what happens to an individual who challenges the IPCC. She didn't respond to that one. I don't really expect her to respond to anything I post, so C'est la vie.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-59551928128638236362010-11-06T12:14:04.218+00:002010-11-06T12:14:04.218+00:00Maybe you and Steig could collaborate on a post......Maybe you and Steig could collaborate on a post... detailing your critical comments... how professionally they were dealt with... what if any changes were made (presumably) as a result... and how satisfied you were with the outcomes...<br /><br />I think that would provide useful data on how the IPCC process works, warts 'n' all, to outsiders... so we're not taken in by the hyperbole...Lazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-9167477783951737192010-11-06T12:09:16.922+00:002010-11-06T12:09:16.922+00:00Another gem:
"By stating my opinions openly ...<a href="http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/04/reversing-the-direction-of-the-positive-feedback-loop-part-ii/#comment-8066" rel="nofollow">Another gem</a>:<br /><br />"By stating my opinions openly and engaging with skeptics, I’ve pretty much committed professional suicide in terms of my climate “peers.” Well if that is the case, I’m redefining my peer group to be the broader scientific community that is outside this particular system."<br /><br />And <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/03/reversing-the-direction-of-the-positive-feedback-loop/#comment-8207" rel="nofollow">it seems to be working</a>:<br /><br />"Lazar, trust me, the body of climate scientists is much larger than the people you are exposed to in the blogosphere. In fact, I just got an email from someone running for for a council position in a professional society, that wishes he had used my statement for his platform."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-46529280825132921052010-11-06T11:38:55.822+00:002010-11-06T11:38:55.822+00:00"though one single case serves to refutes her...<i>"though one single case serves to refutes her claim"</i><br /><br />After much foot dragging she did <a href="http://judithcurry.com/2010/11/03/reversing-the-direction-of-the-positive-feedback-loop/#comment-8164" rel="nofollow">concede the point</a>, though she hasn't amended the text. Her proffered replacement is not much better...<br /><br /><i>"my statement should have said “never tolerated (except for Eric Steig)”"</i><br /><br />... strange how she makes such confident stts about a population from a possibly non-random sample from a single institution... given her concerns over characterizing uncertainty and overconfidence 'n allLazarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-78386980541997054922010-11-06T11:25:41.379+00:002010-11-06T11:25:41.379+00:00I was intrigued enough to go seek what meaning is ...I was intrigued enough to go seek what meaning is attached to the colours on the Italian flag, flags being hot on symbolism.<br /><br />Apparently there are a number of possibilities.<br /><br />Chief among them appears to be that green symbolizes hope, white represents faith and red signifies charity. So, perhaps Curry is hot (tsk, tsk) on faith, and not too hot on hope and charity.<br /><br />Yet <a href="http://www.flags-flags-flags.org.uk/italian-flag.htm" rel="nofollow">another symbolism that might be attached to the flag</a> arises from "Ancient and Heraldic traditions":<br /><br />White - peace and honesty<br />Red - hardiness, bravery, strength & valour<br />Green - hope, joy and love and in many cultures have a sacred significance.<br /><br />Hmm. Perhaps Curry is the new honest broker after all?P. Lewishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08586624400531767627noreply@blogger.com