tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post7122922710718597198..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the pastJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-78465269863487846242011-01-02T10:23:59.466+00:002011-01-02T10:23:59.466+00:00"Trenberth has some interesting views, focusi..."Trenberth has some interesting views, focusing on the Russian heat wave/Pakistan flooding, which he characterizes as a single event."<br /><br />Thanks, that's the sort of information I was looking for.<br /><br />Anon(1).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-84417359096342918682011-01-01T04:36:28.908+00:002011-01-01T04:36:28.908+00:00I'm of the school that thinks that the later a...I'm of the school that thinks that the later appearance of ice in the Greenland Sea and Hudson Bay and the associated blocking highs might be a ready explanation for the paradoxical cooling in Europe and the SE US.<br /><br /><a href="http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2010/400x266_12301602_dectempdep.jpg" rel="nofollow">This graphic from Accuwather</a> certainly seems to suggest that. <br /><br />Whether this is an indicator of climate change depends on whether ice-free regions of the Hudson Bay and Greenland Sea will be typical of future climate change or not. (Personally I think it's too soon to predict, at least without better models than we have right now.)Carrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03476050886656768837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31929168327463493762010-12-31T18:54:09.150+00:002010-12-31T18:54:09.150+00:00Trenberth has some interesting views, focusing on ...Trenberth has some interesting <a href="http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/meetings/attrworkshop_2010/group1_breakout1.pdf" rel="nofollow">views</a>, focusing on the Russian heat wave/Pakistan flooding, which he characterizes as a single event.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27140245949895543982010-12-31T03:57:19.658+00:002010-12-31T03:57:19.658+00:00That should read not
"The Russian heatwave ...That should read not <br /><br />"The Russian heatwave was extreme, but attributable to AGW. "<br /><br />but <br /><br />"The Russion heatwave was extreme, but not directly attributable to AGW".<br /><br />Anon(1).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-2324289213965596932010-12-30T23:55:11.366+00:002010-12-30T23:55:11.366+00:00In the global scale, IMO it confirms that we have ...In the global scale, IMO it confirms that we have a general warming trend with natural variability overlaying it...<br /><br />Flooding is complicated by the fact that (certainly in the UK), the "hardening" of the land surface leads to faster runoff and greater downstream flooding even for the same rainfall. We've built up all the flood plains! So it's hard to be sure how much of the flooding is really due to abnormal rainfall.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-8738746656097706222010-12-30T08:16:25.163+00:002010-12-30T08:16:25.163+00:00This is also the warmest La Nina we have seen. Wha...This is also the warmest La Nina we have seen. What does that add to the equation?<br /><br />Anon(1)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85853510874273880982010-12-30T06:55:56.719+00:002010-12-30T06:55:56.719+00:00"However, I suspect that a more plausible con..."However, I suspect that a more plausible conclusion in the presence of both warm and cold extremes is that they have underestimated natural variability at the outset"<br /><br />We do seem to be experiencing some extremes. Are they within natural variablility? The impression I get is that once in a century floods are becoming more than once in a century. The Russian heatwave was extreme, but attributable to AGW. The warm Russian winter is possibly a sign that there is more to this, when you also consider the ice extent trend.<br /><br />Anon(1).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-88960478297735758022010-12-30T02:49:19.363+00:002010-12-30T02:49:19.363+00:00I only skimmed that paper, but D&A is generall...I only skimmed that paper, but D&A is generally based on changes in the mean, and the work was talking of a trend to warmer climates. In theory they could probably address changes in variability with minor adjustments to the analysis. However, I suspect that a more plausible conclusion in the presence of both warm and cold extremes is that they have underestimated natural variability at the outset (rather than that AGW is increasing both cases), in which case the detection results would be weakened.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-32796576958322997322010-12-29T22:43:39.869+00:002010-12-29T22:43:39.869+00:00"(Yes I did see your results where he seemed ..."(Yes I did see your results where he seemed to be about 55% successful in the forecasts you analysed for rainfall and temperature rather than the claimed 85%, but I did wonder at the time if this was rather better than a complete guess)"<br /><br />JA mainly tested against predicted anomalies (temp, precip, etc.). The thing was, in some cases where PC got those right, he got the synoptics wrong, so I'd say it probably wasn't any better than guessing based on some climatology.skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-77346148407098592042010-12-29T22:41:46.569+00:002010-12-29T22:41:46.569+00:00The cold European winters have been due to increas...The cold European winters have been due to increased meridional flow (blocking). This pattern was also seen in the cause of the Pakistan floods, the Russian heatwave, and the effects of the Icelandic volcano affecting Western Europe. It may also (I haven't checked) been responsible for the recent Aussie extremes and the N Americans ones (I believe it was the cause of the warmer Canadian winters - eg see recent winter olympics).<br /><br />This to me raises three questions:<br /><br />1) Is this blocking *just* part of natural variation, or is there an increased tendency to it as the planet warms?<br /><br />2) Are the effects of it amplified or deadened by it, and are we seeing that now, or will we see it soon?<br /><br />3) Can the D&A studies resolve this pattern - or are they able to, but don't?<br /><br />I realise it's all weather, so we may be back to increased zonal flow like ten years ago soon, but it would be nice to know that people are looking at this.skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-35144765990903259422010-12-29T19:48:15.046+00:002010-12-29T19:48:15.046+00:00OK. Watts!
What have you done with Dr Annan? ;-)...OK. Watts! <br /><br />What have you done with Dr Annan? ;-)<br /><br />2 pathways of causation that are not mutually exclusive.<br />1) Warmer Winters - Warming due to the impacts of GHGs, either direct; radiatively, or indirect; impact on atmospheric circulation.<br />2) Colder Winters - Disturbance of the atmospheric profile of the Arctic due to low levels of sea-ice: - increased atmospheric heat flux and latent heat of fusion - cause changes to wider NH circulation resulting in the extreme low Arctic Oscillation (AO) and atypical cold winter of last year, and possibly this year (so far looking very similar).<br />1 & 2 being indicative of an increase in the occurence of these events, not necessarily every year.<br /><br />From my reading the details still have to be worked out, 2 looks like a tenable explanation of last winter and (so far) this winter. I'm taking Dr Overland seriously. I read about Petoukhov and Semenov’s paper over at RC, that just added weight to what I've learned from various papers in the past year.<br /><br />This year's unusual UK cold is likely to reassert itself and continue (34 Decembers with low AO since 1950; 2 had +ve AO in following Jan & Feb, 12 had -ve AO in either Jan or Feb, 20 had -ve AO in both Jan & Feb). So I'll make 2 predictions.<br /><br />1) This January and February will see the low AO and Warm Arctic Cold Continents pattern persist.<br /><br />2) Taking this year as the first full winter in the decade 2010-2019, if I had any money (boo hoo) it'd be on more than 5 winters similar to 2009/2010, <br />By "similar" I mean: <br />i) unusually low Dec-Feb AO index (at or below 2.5), as determined by the average of Dec, Jan & Feb using this data:<br />http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii <br />ii) Warm Arctic Cold Continents temperature anomalies over the NH, i.e. Over Eurasia and Europe, around the 60degN from around the UK to 120degE, and the Eastern US between 30N and 60N stretching up to Alaska. Persistent anomalies more -4degC. With continued warm anomalies in the Arctic (lets say predominant +4degC anomalies). Pretty much as can be seen at the following link:<br />http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5082/5283789726_a5532fd5d2.jpg<br />Current images here:<br />http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_30a.rnl.html<br /><br />Unfortunately I can't offer a bet on this as I'm skint. I can't be any more specific about the conditions, my math's aren't up to doing the sort of analysis required (EOFs loading functions etc), but I won't arse about over the details if general patterns show I'm wrong.<br /><br />Chris R<br /><br />PS<br />Peter Bridge 2, <br />I've pondered about that during last winter, but came to the conclusion it's too early to see that effect given that we're only just coming out of a minima and minima 21-22 (ACRIM) was lower. Try reading Shindell "Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum." http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi?id=sh05100g It's very relevant, they find a -ve NAO type response in a climate model in response to reduced solar forcing. No tea leaves involved.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-83289023466934535982010-12-29T19:45:01.434+00:002010-12-29T19:45:01.434+00:00Is the cold shifting, due to changing weather patt...Is the cold shifting, due to changing weather patterns? England has always been warmer than it should be.<br /><br />Russia is having an unusually warm winter, and this is causing havoc with transport as well.<br /><br />http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalking/2010/12/27/warm-ice-not-nice-in-moscow/<br /><br />"It’s one thing for airports to close because of really heavy snow (as in New York and nearby tonight), and one thing for airports to close in light snow because of greedy, foolish airport owners (as in the case of London Heathrow recently, to paraphrase the more forgiving accounts in the UK press) but for Moscow’s airports to be paralysed because it was too warm in winter IS something out of left field.<br /><br />Moscow had a Christmas ‘heatwave’. It rained, rather than snowed, because it was 20C warmer than normal, in fact, temperatures went close to zero degrees C, and as a valued Russian aviation associate recounts, this was very bad for air travelers in a country famous for coping with ultra cold (and thus ultra dry) winters without missing a beat."<br /><br />20C warmer than normal is quite a jump, this on top of their recent summer heat wave.<br /><br />Anon(1)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-27623411595812068652010-12-29T16:26:35.855+00:002010-12-29T16:26:35.855+00:00I'm interested in people's views on this ...I'm interested in people's views on this stuff from Mike Lockwood from April 2010<br /><br />[url]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm[/url]<br /><br />There may be some rough correlation between sunspots and UK weather ? - is this Piers Corbyns big secret :-) ! (Yes I did see your results where he seemed to be about 55% successful in the forecasts you analysed for rainfall and temperature rather than the claimed 85%, but I did wonder at the time if this was rather better than a complete guess)PeteBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11719500015671599766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-23546407188935061072010-12-29T15:31:23.627+00:002010-12-29T15:31:23.627+00:00Your money is on the D&A results.
I agree tha...Your money is on the D&A results.<br /><br />I agree that the independent headline is hyping this up this as more extreme winters to come. But putting your money on one makes it look like you agree they are opposites for you to choose one over the other.<br /><br />Trying to discard the hype by looking at quotes: <br /><br />"Vladimir Petoukhov, who carried out the study at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, said the computer simulations showed that the disappearing sea ice is likely to have widespread and unpredictable impacts on the climate of the northern hemisphere."<br /><br />'Widespread and unpredictable' can hardly be much of a 'supplement' to evidence for or against AGW.<br /><br />So how is "Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it." supposed to be interpreted? <br /><br />Supplementing impacts perhaps?<br /><br />By preferring the D&A studies are you ruling out 'widespread and unpredictable impacts' from retreating arctic ice?<br /><br />Is expecting both to be true (ie warmer winters on average but with greater variability) being too gullible/pessimistic?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-61218438855410700732010-12-29T14:24:10.288+00:002010-12-29T14:24:10.288+00:00Up is down, East is West, North is South, warming ...Up is down, East is West, North is South, warming is cooling, cooling is warming. When truth is not your primary motivator, it gets increasingly difficult to keep the story straight.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com