tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post6685112907601039408..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Business as usualJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-23544298763224983432011-03-22T07:12:22.301+00:002011-03-22T07:12:22.301+00:00Bloody spam block ate your comment again! But at l...Bloody spam block ate your comment again! But at least I realised this time.<br /><br />I agree that the rapid changes in advice - not due to a changing situation, but merely due to lack of information - is not ideal, but OTOH the threat is still a long way from being a meaningful one. To us. I also agree that contamination further north is still a serious issue, but it's not one that requires me to leave. The comparison with the risk of a dodgy rice ball with a nasty surprise in the middle is certainly relevant to that issue. Or even the risk of the journey to get the dodgy rice ball...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-33342539541417085412011-03-21T23:29:22.959+00:002011-03-21T23:29:22.959+00:00Point taken. But if I have a quibble it is that ag...Point taken. But if I have a quibble it is that again Beddington has made a very firm statement (but a very different statement from the original) without making himself available of all the information. Every time an 'expert' does this they devalue the impact of their future message and reduce people's ability to calibrate risk where they have to outsource their risk assessment to an 'expect'. <br /><br />In Beddington V1.0 there was no reference to the spent fuel rod pools even though at that time this issue was being openly discussed elsewhere. <br /><br />In Beddington V2.0, there is no reference to the fact that Reactor 3 uses MOX rods although this is being picked over by nuclear experts in the Japanese media and makes a fire in reactor pool 3 a very different kettle of fish than a fire in reactor pool 4 (his big focus).<br /><br />And reactor 3 is highly troubled. You can get a good sense of the tasks ahead from CNIC here (skip the intro and start at 6:30, you have to put up with the German ad at the beginning).<br /><br />http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/13447172<br /><br />Fukushima is still a bit of a Gordian knot in that a contamination event in any one part can preclude the ability to stabilise other parts. So we cannot yet rule out a fire in pool 3, because their ability to pump water into it is contingent on reactors 1 through 3 not shutting down the site through another radiation leak. <br /><br />More important, so much of the commentary appears binary. It is either "nothing to see here, and move along please" or "we are all going to die". I think the situation is a lot more nuanced. For example, so much of the analysis suggests that as long as Roppongi is OK, the impact of any leak can be discounted to zero. But a wider leak incorporating Ibaraki and Tochigi would have massive consequences for the Japanese economy. <br /><br />And yes, we are more likely to die on the way to buy an onigiri from a convenience store, but that is not really the point.The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-19715326831832326542011-03-19T22:02:55.439+00:002011-03-19T22:02:55.439+00:00Justin, but even in that case:
"And even in ...Justin, but even in that case:<br /><br />"And even in that worst case scenario, and I would emphasise that this is an extremely unlikely case, even if that happened the level of radiation around Tokyo would be extremely modest. Although there would be radiation increases, even in this extreme case, the effect on human health could be substantially mitigated by just taking very simple precautions. By essentially staying indoors whilst the plume of radiation passed over, not having your ventilation on, and keeping your windows closed. These measures would mitigate any significant risks to human health."<br /><br />Eli, yes it's amusing to hear of the big pill sell-out, apparently there is a trickle of people making themselves ill with them - hopefully you won't actually have a local problem that requires their use while there is a shortage!<br /><br />It is both a blessing and a curse that radiation can be detected at levels so many orders of magnitude below any possible health risk. I suspect we'll be hearing about contamination of the food supply for a long time to come.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-73958141682481429662011-03-19T19:50:59.867+00:002011-03-19T19:50:59.867+00:00Eli was, as his wont when MR is away downing a rat...Eli was, as his wont when MR is away downing a rather good domestic IPA when one of those hyper under thirties at the bar went on and on about how she was laying in iodine pills. (This, of course, in Washington, DC, half a world away).<br /><br />Well it was happy hour so Eli drank his beer. Bad bunny, but you can't save the world without a second beer.EliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-4185427299103963912011-03-19T17:12:17.353+00:002011-03-19T17:12:17.353+00:00And Beddington's revised view and explanation ...And Beddington's revised view and explanation is now on the embassy web site:<br /><br />http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/en/news/?view=News&id=569076982The Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-88065026337494946392011-03-19T16:50:46.975+00:002011-03-19T16:50:46.975+00:00James: I think the embassy chnged their message be...James: I think the embassy chnged their message because Beddington did a U-turn over the risk of a fire in the spent fuel rod pools, which as I mentioned before he didn't address in the original embassy briefing; <br /><br />http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-ministers-spooked-by-chief-scientific-advisor-2245413.html<br /><br />So it was a quite understandable action by the embassy. Good news is that they appear to be stabilising the spent fuel rod pools although we are getting no information on no 4. <br /><br />The IAEA continuous updates are now proving one of the most reliable news sources on the issues.<br /><br />http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.htmlThe Rational Pessimisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15839671809950298150noreply@blogger.com