tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post6391994192089048176..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Are pigeons smarter than sciencebloggers?James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-64205295121646796412011-03-07T13:42:03.636+00:002011-03-07T13:42:03.636+00:00Ouch, that was a strange asymmetry error to make.....Ouch, that was a strange asymmetry error to make... and the other wasn't nice either. Shows what you get for posting in the middle of the night...Gravitylosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06169853327061102628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-9544696315917705392011-03-07T01:42:32.733+00:002011-03-07T01:42:32.733+00:00Eräs,
I think your error is just a little careles...Eräs,<br /><br />I think your error is just a little carelessness, not a big conceptual problem. Of the 49 BB pairs, actually 13 have a Tuesday birth (7 first-born, 7 second-born minus the case where both are Tuesday which has been double-counted). For the 98 BG pairs (order unimportant) you still have to divide by 7 there too!<br /><br />Followup post is <a href="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2011/03/pigeons-vs-sciencebloggers-round-two.html" rel="nofollow">here</a>.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-15810467729057655772011-03-07T00:58:14.083+00:002011-03-07T00:58:14.083+00:00I'll demonstrate my sub-pigeonness now, hope t...I'll demonstrate my sub-pigeonness now, hope this motivates you to write a post explaining what's the issue:<br /><br />Let's start narrowing it down.<br />(7 weekdays * 2 genders)^2 = 196 combinations. 49 boy-boys, 49-girl-girls and 98 girl-boys (order insignificant). Only boy-boys and girl-boys here so 147. 98/147 odds the other is a girl at this point. or 2/3. <br />And then, the boy is born on tuesday so divide by seven the number of boy-boy combinations, so we have 7 and 98. So 7/105 that the other child is a boy and 98/105 that the other child is a girl. <br /><br />Ouch, that must be wrong. The assumptions are not well justified here. I'll leave it to the expert to illuminate... :)Gravitylosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06169853327061102628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-36838935147826213512011-03-07T00:55:42.484+00:002011-03-07T00:55:42.484+00:00I don't really get why the monty hall problem ...I don't really get why the monty hall problem is so hard for people. <br /><br />The host gives information when he opens one of the doors.<br /><br />One could even think about oneself actually planning to switch the choice as soon as the door is opened.<br /><br /><br /><br />But the two children issue, well, that's always been an unresolved paradox for me (it was introduced as two parrots in a cage, and the owner tells that one of them is male... what if he told that the black one is male instead?), how come the odds change if the information given is entirely useless? It's probably a scope issue. <br />The weekday twist highlights that.Gravitylosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06169853327061102628noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-77298171194997876692011-03-04T00:35:58.754+00:002011-03-04T00:35:58.754+00:00Birds are quite intellegent.
Even pigeons, I supp...Birds are quite intellegent.<br /><br />Even pigeons, I suppose.David B. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02917182411282836875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12143700090461345442011-03-03T20:39:41.233+00:002011-03-03T20:39:41.233+00:00An interesting thought is whether Monty had worked...An interesting thought is whether Monty had worked this out before they came up with the gameEliRabetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07957002964638398767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-67376470974335178102011-03-03T20:22:49.351+00:002011-03-03T20:22:49.351+00:00That's the one, thanks. I hadn't tried, be...That's the one, thanks. I hadn't tried, because I'd assumed I'd listened to it. But as soon as I saw that, I realised it had been linked to from the MindHacks site:<br /><br />http://mindhacks.com/<br /><br />Which I have lost the habit of following - thank Guha for RSS. :)<br /><br />Anyway, seems I'd misremembered it - which is par for the course.skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-51028270995670019432011-03-03T13:43:30.196+00:002011-03-03T13:43:30.196+00:00Skanky, that's memorable enough to be googlabl...Skanky, that's memorable enough to be googlable, as well....seems to be <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/rn/allinthemind/stories/2009/2739621.htm" rel="nofollow">this</a>.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-18399271627791664802011-03-03T03:37:42.231+00:002011-03-03T03:37:42.231+00:00But IIRC some pigeons are Russian astronomers with...But IIRC some pigeons are Russian astronomers with a tendency to get the wrong answer. That has to be good for the dullest of sciencebloggers.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-45885724941115294802011-03-02T20:42:58.390+00:002011-03-02T20:42:58.390+00:00Forgot to say that the dilemma's easy for me, ...Forgot to say that the dilemma's easy for me, as I'd select the door the host opened, as I'd prefer the goat.skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-791177081250062692011-03-02T20:42:04.464+00:002011-03-02T20:42:04.464+00:00The pigeon part reminds me of a discussion on (I t...The pigeon part reminds me of a discussion on (I think) Material World on R4 where they compared the left & right side of human brains and rats. The idea was a random "pattern" - the left side tried to find a pattern and the right side & rats saw no pattern )or didn't try).<br /><br />The rat example was some doors, where food would appear randomly. The rats would just sit outside one door waiting for the food and ignoring the other doors. They did better than people who tried to spot a pattern and go to the correct "door". I can't remember how they separated left & right side of brain, but the memorable quote was "The right side of our brain is just like a big rat..."skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.com