tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post6047242517183636602..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Dumb and dumberJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43589006123538009562020-04-11T04:42:51.202+01:002020-04-11T04:42:51.202+01:00Careful now. You're in danger of sounding like...Careful now. You're in danger of sounding like Steve McIntyre. All of these fools with their mad models predicting the wrong numbers, but here's a short R program I knocked up in the shower. Not saying you're wrong, but imagine how the IC guys might feel when hearing this sort of thing no doubt multiplied ad nauseam.winstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14425489734425086756noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-52272069286945310372020-04-09T08:27:56.661+01:002020-04-09T08:27:56.661+01:00I'll just have to get used to keeping a close ...I'll just have to get used to keeping a close eye on your Twitter feed!<br /><br />FYI - COVID-19 in South West England:<br /><br /><a href="https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1248139848491372544" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1248139848491372544</a><br /><br />My helpful advice to those considering taking a traditional holiday in South West England over the Easter break?<br /><br /><i>Stay the f*ck at home!</i>Jim Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14677943707472091348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-47928319303527912712020-04-08T21:05:41.376+01:002020-04-08T21:05:41.376+01:00There is no doubt that the eeeevil skeptics like I...There is no doubt that the eeeevil skeptics like Ioannidis have been right about the science elite’s total screwup. In fairness, China is a police state where virtually everything in the ‘media’ is a party line lie. Plenty of blame to go around. Why is it that for some people every discussion has to devolve into a focus on their Favorite witches who must be constantly tarred and feathered? Epidemiology has had a woke hangover ever since the AIDS lie that “everyone is at risk.”David Younghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17029429374522399227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-28184386205733700612020-04-08T18:39:05.027+01:002020-04-08T18:39:05.027+01:00Thanks James,
Duly reported at my end.Thanks James,<br /><br />Duly reported at my end.Jim Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14677943707472091348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-25369396872549692512020-04-08T16:02:39.102+01:002020-04-08T16:02:39.102+01:00well I failed to give a proper link so here is the...well I failed to give a proper link so here is the new forecast in cut and paste style...<br /><br /><br />https://twitter.com/jamesannan/status/1247901290954276869?s=20<br /><br />James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-83493469886430357152020-04-08T15:41:18.953+01:002020-04-08T15:41:18.953+01:00Thanks James,
I have duly amended your "labe...Thanks James,<br /><br />I have duly amended your "label".<br /><br />I'll just have to get used to clicking the Blogger "Preview" button!Jim Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14677943707472091348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-53838481563719708902020-04-08T15:23:35.466+01:002020-04-08T15:23:35.466+01:00No, I think delete and start again is the only pos...No, I think delete and start again is the only possibility. BTW I slightly improved my forecasting methodology to get a better initialisation from "today" (just by weighting more towards recent data than earlier data, a basic heuristic rather than any fancy theory). It cuts a little off the ends but not much different overall.<br /><br />Yes I guess climate modeller though probably doing more epidemiology in the last couple of weeks :-) My background includes a rather broad range of modelling actually, I even briefly did a very little epidemiology some decades ago (fungal disease in crops).<br /><br />Improved forecast..<br /><br />James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-41177119759786508212020-04-08T15:13:19.729+01:002020-04-08T15:13:19.729+01:00Pete - It is certainly the case that "it is t...Pete - It is certainly the case that "it is time for death to be reported"<br /><br />James - I am taking your name in vain over at:<br /><br /><a href="http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/04/covid-19-in-the-united-kingdom/#Apr-08-PM" rel="nofollow">http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/04/covid-19-in-the-united-kingdom/#Apr-08-PM</a><br /><br />I hope that's OK with you? In particular please let me know at your earliest convenience if you'd prefer to be labelled as something other than a "climate modeller"!<br /><br />P.S. Is there any way to edit a typo on here. The only option seems to be to delete the offending comment and start again?Jim Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14677943707472091348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-62464561857630533092020-04-08T11:55:05.343+01:002020-04-08T11:55:05.343+01:00Yes I didn't want to cheat by using more days ...Yes I didn't want to cheat by using more days than the IC group did. Good suggestion about the label/title. Processing dates in R is a bit of a hassle but I ought to make myself....James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-15256879029882374262020-04-08T10:14:41.271+01:002020-04-08T10:14:41.271+01:00Why did you post your 14 day prediction when you h...Why did you post your 14 day prediction when you had a 16 day available? is that for better comparison? In any case, I think it would be good if your "forecasts" had a "using data available on X-Y-Z", since no one really can remember what x days since lockdown means, and the data is being updated anyway.<br />Bryan Lawrencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15262374835889009894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-84208167071317978552020-04-08T09:33:12.532+01:002020-04-08T09:33:12.532+01:00That's important, but under-reporting *in a co...That's important, but under-reporting *in a consistent manner* (big assumption, I know) doesn't affect estimates of growth *rate*, thanks to the magic of exponentials. It's the same reason why we can use deaths to indicate growth rate of infections in the first place. Of course the delays matter hugely when you are looking at changes in the rate. And changes in reporting methods matter hugely too (eg testing all suspects and then moving to testing only the seriously ill leads to a big bias if uncorrected).James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-37964703498940751452020-04-08T09:23:17.578+01:002020-04-08T09:23:17.578+01:00I think the reporting delays are significant
htt...I think the reporting delays are significant <br /><br />https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960 <br /><br />it's not just time to die - it is time for death to be reportedPeteBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11719500015671599766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-70504876738253739882020-04-08T09:21:34.506+01:002020-04-08T09:21:34.506+01:00Just ran it for fun: setting Rt = 0.6±0.1 we get a...Just ran it for fun: setting Rt = 0.6±0.1 we get a median of 6.5k and top end of 10k. We'd expect to see the peak with the week but the actual numbers aren't so different apart from ruling out the high end.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-88761666542499724442020-04-08T09:11:15.248+01:002020-04-08T09:11:15.248+01:00Yes I agree about R, but given the simplicity of t...Yes I agree about R, but given the simplicity of the model and uncertainty about time to death, I can't really claim to be sure from that based on the available data. It doesn't make a big difference to the central forecast over the next week if R is 0.8 or even 0.6 but the top end of my above forecast does look excessive to me.<br /><br />There was certainly a "take it on the chin" approach baked in to the flu pandemic plan. And when all is said and done, we might end up there anyway - there is no clear exit plan and we might never find one. But even so, the curve needed flattening. It wasn't even a tail risk, it was the central estimate based on available data by early Feb!James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-17780045104935574982020-04-08T08:54:30.673+01:002020-04-08T08:54:30.673+01:00Probably R about 1 after lockdown is even rather p...Probably R about 1 after lockdown is even rather pessimistic, given decreasing death rates in places that have implemented lockdowns (and that the fit looks better with a lower R).<br /><br />Will be interesting to see what happens in places like Australia, where case counts are getting low enough that eradication might be possible.<br /><br />On the slow UK response: one gets the impression that once the 'government experts' had decided in January that it was probably not a big deal, they had effectively locked-in that view, and it took extraordinarily public evidence to shift them into a response. There was never a 'we need to commit resources and prepare for the tail-risk right now'. Committees aren't much fun for the Cassandras of the world or those who want to stick out. <br />Ben McMillanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12207321632374481100noreply@blogger.com