tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post5950250852918145197..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: COP-outJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-40294676386766782462010-01-13T01:12:46.266+00:002010-01-13T01:12:46.266+00:00Well by 2019 I'll hopefully be living the life...Well by 2019 I'll hopefully be living the life of Riley on my <a href="http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/08/bet.html" rel="nofollow">$10,000</a>, which was wagered at rather better odds!James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-3332452617581791302010-01-12T20:11:21.723+00:002010-01-12T20:11:21.723+00:00They have now gone further than 2014 top 5 warmest...They have now gone further than 2014 top 5 warmest contract, with a couple of 2019 bets. They are Warmer than 2009 and more than .2C warmer than 2009. No trade and not much in way of order book either - 2 orders are mine but someone has placed a buy order for 10 at 10. Gosh, a whole $1 tied up or maybe they are trading on margin so that it doesn't tie up a $1.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-23598714762361508772009-12-28T23:08:19.412+00:002009-12-28T23:08:19.412+00:00Have we reached the start of the prequel yet?
But...Have we reached the start of the prequel yet?<br /><br />But going off topic, intrade has some more contracts out<br />Year, Contract_________,Buy_,Sell<br />2010.GLOBALTEMP.WARMEST 22.0 35.0<br />2011.GLOBALTEMP.WARMEST - 75.0 <br /><br />2010.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 62.0 80.0<br />2011.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 8.0 50.0 <br />2012.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 7.0 65.0 <br /><br />On 2010.GLOBALTEMP.TOP5 I grabbed 10 at 74 and 10 at 75 (and the 20 at 62 are also my bids).<br /><br />Now I will have to get around to considering probabilities for 2010 GISS temps and whether it is more than a 35% chance for a record. Though with only 2 coupons on offer, it probably isn't worth the effort even if you could know the answer and predicting ENSO after the May barrier is problematic.<br /><br />At 35% chance for 2010 and 2011 that would give you less than 58% chance of winning your bet.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12444513027760272552009-12-23T18:10:46.935+00:002009-12-23T18:10:46.935+00:00Oddly enough, I thought they both said the same th...Oddly enough, I thought they both said the same thing. But there you go. Eye of beholder and all that. ;)skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-17597779421805258492009-12-23T11:59:46.127+00:002009-12-23T11:59:46.127+00:00For me, Life of Brian wins over Marcus Brigstocke&...For me, Life of Brian wins over Marcus Brigstocke's oh-so-worthy right-on stuff. But at least the latter is still funnier than Monbiot and Lynas...James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-9971320292835817592009-12-22T21:40:39.571+00:002009-12-22T21:40:39.571+00:00This scene from Life of Brian fits the COP15 negot...This scene from Life of Brian fits the COP15 negotiations pretty well:<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YawagQ6lLrAbobunkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07700713209346702770noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-90421530661057586702009-12-22T10:25:33.799+00:002009-12-22T10:25:33.799+00:00http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio4/fricome...http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/radio4/fricomedy/fricomedy_20091218-1900a.mp3<br /><br />Roughly, five minutes in is quite amusing, but at the best bit is MB's piece at 11:30.<br /><br />It'll vanish on Friday.skankyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14584908320777937193noreply@blogger.com