tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post5091864763970777792..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Climate sensitivity workshop at Schloss RingbergJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-60236535819857213672015-05-29T23:20:44.281+01:002015-05-29T23:20:44.281+01:00I think you may be seeing social effects driving m...I think you may be seeing social effects driving models to converge. It would be natural given human nature and the fact that it's so hard to compare model predictions to collected data. I have run very complex models in a different field and one of the biggest headaches we have is real data. To be honest, we never match all of it. We simply can't. So if you can't test the model in a 30 year run you are up the creek without a paddle. I think. Fernando Leanmehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16085680730729620836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-53684995018909376972015-04-24T11:26:10.481+01:002015-04-24T11:26:10.481+01:00That's a shame, it's short enough that I d...That's a shame, it's short enough that I don't really have any excuse for not reading it :-) Just more of the usual, really.James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-91123275399347288322015-04-22T18:11:51.926+01:002015-04-22T18:11:51.926+01:00http://earthstatement.org/statement/http://earthstatement.org/statement/crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-7217020362949759692015-04-22T14:54:59.276+01:002015-04-22T14:54:59.276+01:00Rockstrom chairing, also Hoskins involved. Can any...Rockstrom chairing, also Hoskins involved. Can anyone be bothered tracking down the full report that they issued? <br /><br />We'd better get our Ringberg summary out asap! (joke, it won't actually say anything substantive at this stage, though I am optimistic of progress on the 3-5y time scale.)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-52010181584031662662015-04-22T14:25:17.795+01:002015-04-22T14:25:17.795+01:00I am sure such workshops like this have advanced t...I am sure such workshops like this have advanced the science of being able to produce probability statements to such an extent that the following statements can be made:<br /><br />There is a one-in-ten chance of the world being 6C warmer than it is today by 2100 which would lead to cataclysmic changes in the global climate with unimaginable consequences for human civilisation, leading climate researchers have warned in an “Earth Statement”.<br /><br />http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/global-warming-experts-say-temperatures-could-rise-by-6c-by-2100-with-cataclysmic-results-10193506.html<br /><br />"according to the 17 “Earth League” scientists and economists who have signed the joint statement."<br /><br />gosh 17 <br /><br />I also quite liked<br /><br />"Scientists calculate that the world has already warmed by an average of about 0.85C over the past 120 years and that a further increase of no more than 2C is the lowest that could be tolerated without running the risk of dangerous climate “tipping points” leading to further, accelerated warming."<br /><br />Anyway care to calculate what climate sensitivity they believe in?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-33966858660608233152015-04-17T07:19:23.352+01:002015-04-17T07:19:23.352+01:00I'm shocked, shocked that Nic would prefer the...I'm shocked, shocked that Nic would prefer the lowest possible version of our estimate :-)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43302225287625721502015-04-16T23:48:57.817+01:002015-04-16T23:48:57.817+01:00This was interesting: http://climateaudit.org/2015...This was interesting: http://climateaudit.org/2015/04/13/pitfalls-in-climate-sensitivity-estimation-part-2/#comment-757574MikeRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00127456522803816485noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-50664345629934913232015-04-10T09:35:01.476+01:002015-04-10T09:35:01.476+01:00No, but I only took up one person's plane seat...No, but I only took up one person's plane seat and presented the work of 4 :-)<br /><br />(um...sitting in an aiport cafe as I type...sorry...)James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-10663407823261956782015-04-10T00:36:16.427+01:002015-04-10T00:36:16.427+01:00Did you cycle there? Did you cycle there? Graemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11007306140530173428noreply@blogger.com