tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post4440864326824681598..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: The bet - final outcomeJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-56745700193053090302022-08-25T11:19:21.351+01:002022-08-25T11:19:21.351+01:00Even UAH 6.0 shows warming, when comparing those t...Even UAH 6.0 shows warming, when comparing those two periods, albeit not much (0.79°C/decade):<br /><br /><a href="https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6-land/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96" rel="nofollow">https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6-land/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96/trend/plot/uah6/from:1998.0/to:2003.96/plot/uah6/from:2012.0/to:2017.96</a><br /><br /><a href="https://sealevel.info/2012-2017_vs_1998-2003_UAH6_wft.png" rel="nofollow">https://sealevel.info/2012-2017_vs_1998-2003_UAH6_wft.png</a><br /><br />They lost, fair and square. They need to pay up.ncdave4lifehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05022815923433003840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-90197162635744221252018-10-21T03:36:55.179+01:002018-10-21T03:36:55.179+01:00I guess everybody now knows what kind of people Ma...I guess everybody now knows what kind of people Mashnich and Bashkirtsev really are. Scientists, may be. Crooks, for sure.Nonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06967460890921238527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-83909159521779908562018-10-19T18:17:51.614+01:002018-10-19T18:17:51.614+01:00Not that you have any intention of repeating this ...Not that you have any intention of repeating this experiment, but I wonder how likeliness-to-pay correlates with country of origin and age. (I'd hypothesize that younger scientists might have more professional reputation on the line?)Windchasershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11554275410734284781noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-13047087470476615772018-10-19T14:48:35.039+01:002018-10-19T14:48:35.039+01:00Well I do have a real name and location which lead...Well I do have a real name and location which lead to a company email address, but no response from there either.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-34619980329306646982018-10-18T02:10:24.370+01:002018-10-18T02:10:24.370+01:00Had a few other things to distract myself with, an...Had a few other things to distract myself with, and have been taking a bit of a blog hiatus recently. But anyway, it's not like the result was going to go away.<br /><br />Pseudonymous netizens are probably an even worse bet than Russian scientists as far as honesty goes...good luck!James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31465306803379914002018-10-17T23:31:20.089+01:002018-10-17T23:31:20.089+01:00I am amazed you have been so patient before publis...I am amazed you have been so patient before publishing this given that Russian article is dated 15 Mar.<br /><br />Snow Hope apparently hasn't logged in to UKWeatherWorld since Dec 8 2017. Ho hum. (This part of comment relates to http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2005/08/bet-number-2.html )crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-86147180625155312582018-10-17T16:30:10.982+01:002018-10-17T16:30:10.982+01:00What's his is mine, and all that...
I though...What's his is mine, and all that... <br /><br />I thought there was a slim chance of them paying up, but I also have no desire to deprive someone of such a large sum if they can't afford it, so I don't think much of the escrow options. Gentleperson's agreement or nothing. <br /><br />I also thought a likely outcome would be non-payment as a result of bickering over the result. That the result is actually so clear is quite compelling.<br />juleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02591920483149775255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-42532716240726564942018-10-17T03:35:40.651+01:002018-10-17T03:35:40.651+01:00The obvious condition would be to use a third-part...The obvious condition would be to use a third-party (eg a science academy). You both pay the agreed sum in advance to the agreed escrow who will invest it in government bonds. They pay the winner (or their estate) with the combined prize money with the interest at end of period of the bet.PhilScaddenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05937238628676275303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-12423394368948214362018-10-17T00:52:31.267+01:002018-10-17T00:52:31.267+01:00There is a Russian-language article here: https://...There is a Russian-language article here: https://www.chel.kp.ru/daily/26806.4/3841519/ which quotes Bashkirtsev as saying that he originally wanted to hold till 2025, but then scaled it back to 2018 out of concern he might not live long enough (he is 76 now); now, he goes on, while he lost the actual bet, warming shows all signs of slowing down and it therefore would make more sense to wait till 2025 to settle, by which time he would have "no moral ground not to honor the bet".<br /><br />Yes, this <b>is</b> literally what he says, assuming the journalist didn't make it all up (never a safe assumption with the Russian media). You've got to see it to believe it.<br /><br />In the meantime, no single word from Mashnich.Kostyahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03891211033409777324noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-53068134135356142952018-10-16T21:04:42.815+01:002018-10-16T21:04:42.815+01:00Windchasers, no, there's just hot air. He lost...Windchasers, no, there's just hot air. He lost but he won on the science because the bet was too short and it will be cooling by 2026. Or something like that. Oh, and he wants to bet $100,000 next time!James Annanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75129685546211490342018-10-16T20:10:41.094+01:002018-10-16T20:10:41.094+01:00In case anyone's interested I've gathered ...In case anyone's interested I've gathered together a scoreboard of agreed & published climate change bets. <br /><br />http://ohbwaa.blogspot.com/<br /><br />I'm going to do a post on each one in chronological order of when the bet was made, and have started with this one. Hautboishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00727277002120815591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-62897181419064433882018-10-16T03:09:48.089+01:002018-10-16T03:09:48.089+01:00Apparently the gulf between intellectual and contr...Apparently the gulf between intellectual and contractual dishonesty is neither deep nor wide.Bud Vieirahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01270213893016543932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-70890945946830817072018-10-15T17:32:06.515+01:002018-10-15T17:32:06.515+01:00If you don't mind me asking, what's Bashki...If you don't mind me asking, what's Bashkirtsev's justification for not paying? Has he given one?Windchasershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11554275410734284781noreply@blogger.com