tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post3129069168434871807..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: Hot or not?James Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-57142518017648279762010-07-07T11:32:02.649+01:002010-07-07T11:32:02.649+01:00Signals seem a bit mixed at the moment:
ONI has c...Signals seem a bit mixed at the moment:<br /><br />ONI has crept towards (weak?) La Nina from 3 weeks at -0.5 to -0.6 this week.<br /><br />MEI at -.412 for MayJun from +0.539 for AprMay "dropped faster than any other case on record for this time of year"<br /><br />SOI after a strong El Nino 2.1 in Feb had changed to a La Nina'ish<br />+1.2 and +0.8 for April May is now back to a neutral 0.1 for June.<br /><br />SOI could be a lead indicator or it could just be a blip. <br /><br />MEI could be more reliable taking more factors into account but could also be showing change without yet making clear where it will go to.<br /><br />ONI seems to be creaping towards weak La Nina and this may have the benefit of being the middle suggestion between heading for strong La Nina and back to neutral. However, the range of suggestions seems large with neither of other two agreeing with ONI on weak La Nina.<br /><br />You pays your money .....crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-38735776949422505382010-07-03T00:28:42.076+01:002010-07-03T00:28:42.076+01:00Flying blind by the seat of some entirely non-scie...Flying blind by the seat of some entirely non-scientific pants and observing that the past may not be a perfect guide to future when it comes to the Arctic and adjacent areas, there's been some unusual warmth there so far this year. If it holds, James has a chance. Regardless, I expect that he will be way behind as of September and then catch up a bit through O-N-D, thus the nail-biting aspect.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-41324422296711585232010-07-02T17:59:15.294+01:002010-07-02T17:59:15.294+01:00>"O-N-D look to be a nail-biter for James....>"O-N-D look to be a nail-biter for James."<br /><br />Or not. Only 5 out of 40 years showed the error of 0.045 necessary for James to win. The variability in an out of sample year may be a litle higher but I doubt I would put James's odds at better than 20%. Unless of course you have a more compelling case for a higher probability.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-29593033780262945072010-07-02T03:40:14.452+01:002010-07-02T03:40:14.452+01:00pointer, HadCRUT gets publicized much more than GI...pointer, HadCRUT gets publicized much more than GISTEMP (which mostly just gets an annual summary) and NCDC emphasizes U.S. temperatures in the publicity they do, so it's no surprise that the HadCRUT global results get the most attention. To Be fair, HadCRUT has dibs on the global since they with it first.<br /><br />O-N-D look to be a nail-biter for James. The northern high lats may yet save him from minor embarrassment. Melt, sea ice, melt, and pass the popcorn.Steve Bloomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12943109973917998380noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-44304011546487940102010-07-01T16:45:40.330+01:002010-07-01T16:45:40.330+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-22273953276100529022010-07-01T15:37:35.808+01:002010-07-01T15:37:35.808+01:00HadCRUT correlates well with MEI.
2 Weeks ago ONI...HadCRUT correlates well with MEI.<br /><br />2 Weeks ago ONI got down to -0.5 and it seemed likely to go further but since then has steadied at -0.5.<br /><br />FWIW:<br />Assuming MEI for May/June is -0.2 and for the rest of the year -0.5 seems quite optimistic assumptions for you. A quick and dirty multiple linear regression then came out predicting HadCrut at .5 compared to 1998's .548.<br /><br />For GISStemp however it comes out at 63 versus 62 for 2005.<br /><br />Intrade which works on GISS has a range of 78 to 84 which may be a touch high but not worth the effort of betting on.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-81199580938392090332010-07-01T13:39:25.884+01:002010-07-01T13:39:25.884+01:00One thing that's struck me is that HadCRU has ...One thing that's struck me is that HadCRU has in the eyes of the media become the standard for global temperature despite not even attempting to cover the polar regions. They barely mention GISTEMP. <br /><br />So help me, it pains me to think this way, but the long-term prospects for action on mitigation could actually be helped if 2010 beat 1998 in the HadCRU.pointernoreply@blogger.com