tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post3078306675113838018..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Bayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverseJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-51832873686768454452020-05-11T22:12:32.500+01:002020-05-11T22:12:32.500+01:00The model, while allowing for uncertainty, predict...The model, while allowing for uncertainty, predicted the death toll would have been around 577 - about 80% lower than the actual total.<br /><br />https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52617895<br /><br />Took their time getting there, and I guess, probably don't explain what the error was.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-893086951313377882020-05-10T13:57:52.958+01:002020-05-10T13:57:52.958+01:00Peak in UK deaths still looking like around 10 Apr...Peak in UK deaths still looking like around 10 April (by general trend rather than by one off peak on 17th), before your April 15 post. So that issue seems well called.<br /><br />OTOH still getting 1000 deaths in 2 days rather than in whole of May so declining rather slowly. Or is this a later peak in care homes indicating need for more sophisticated models than you used? This might have resulted in a later peak but it just so happened that it didn't..., so maybe looking a bit more like a narrow win or even a score draw than a clear win for you?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31843738212136741462020-04-27T17:59:25.370+01:002020-04-27T17:59:25.370+01:00Sew us no the bad typoists. Sew us no the bad typoists. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01186405235008602228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-29256877568621681392020-04-22T08:36:21.234+01:002020-04-22T08:36:21.234+01:00We not et
Why can’t one edit comments on blogger?We not et<br />Why can’t one edit comments on blogger?juleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02591920483149775255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-47504696899222914232020-04-22T08:35:36.887+01:002020-04-22T08:35:36.887+01:00Yes, as creators of one of the EGU’s magic money t...Yes, as creators of one of the EGU’s magic money trees (GMD) et should totally have free papers for life.juleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02591920483149775255noreply@blogger.com