tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post1773137153012753865..comments2024-02-15T04:42:41.606+00:00Comments on James' Empty Blog: BlueSkiesResearch.org.uk: Model calibration, nowcasting, and operational prediction of the COVID-19 pandemicJames Annanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04318741813895533700noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-21568361157586962572020-05-01T00:46:09.782+01:002020-05-01T00:46:09.782+01:00Excellent effort! Based on current data, the data ...Excellent effort! Based on current data, the data follows the upper bound of prediction. How can the model be improved, or assumptions revised to for more reliable prediction for say the next 30 days?ChangeWithinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13209020697557802988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-29397047402994777582020-04-22T00:27:16.344+01:002020-04-22T00:27:16.344+01:00BTW: A blog visitor pulled in Illinois data and ra...BTW: A blog visitor pulled in Illinois data and ran your model<br /><br />http://rankexploits.com/musings/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KennethsGraph.png<br /><br />There could be some slight dating issues, but I'm happy to see a prediction with R<1 for after Governor Pritzker's "stay at home" order.luciahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12342621789338198739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-2147196373566798762020-04-21T16:09:09.007+01:002020-04-21T16:09:09.007+01:00A little o/t, however congrates for the today rele...A little o/t, however congrates for the today released paper on ECS!! Frankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10670464658625758213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-55863717628589420742020-04-19T17:20:01.749+01:002020-04-19T17:20:01.749+01:00Spreading is mostly before symptoms.
https://www....Spreading is mostly before symptoms.<br /><br />https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5<br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07567197089095711546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-26137813134689406942020-04-19T00:24:48.543+01:002020-04-19T00:24:48.543+01:00Weekly cycle in new cases seems to be looking like...Weekly cycle in new cases seems to be looking likely in a few countries? Also in deaths? Presumably this is in reporting effects rather than actual. Wondering if recognizing this might help with future predictions.<br /><br />Meanwhile 761 861 847 888 is well inside your error bounds but OTOH doesn't seem to be showing the downward trend you seemed so confident about. On third hand, still below 980 peak.crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-25774566006402853792020-04-17T15:32:55.384+01:002020-04-17T15:32:55.384+01:00Daily deceased up to 847 today.
Not to mention Jo...Daily deceased up to 847 today.<br /><br />Not to mention John Conway, and Sir John Houghton, and Norman "Bite yer legs" Hunter.Jim Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14677943707472091348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-31992183150535862152020-04-16T19:33:02.578+01:002020-04-16T19:33:02.578+01:00Very interesting paper. I have recommended it to m...Very interesting paper. I have recommended it to my colleagues, who are in a broad community advising government in Poland. By the way - on medrxiv.org they state that they will not consider papers that have been published elsewhere - including your own site. Maybe you should pull down paper from the blog for the screening period. I have pulled mine down from the site, where I try to estimate the number of cases worldwide if testing was performed to a German standard. Witoldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17160611381775852928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-89824029874758206912020-04-16T15:32:06.908+01:002020-04-16T15:32:06.908+01:00>"I'm curious how for Sweden, 'R0 ...>"I'm curious how for Sweden, 'R0 = 2.5 ± 0.3' can be estimated accurately with such sparse data (appears to be only about 7 deaths prior to imposing controls)."<br /><br />12540 current confirmed cases is rather more than a handful/7. Of course, this comes with its own problems; it depends not only on disease prevalence but also on how much testing done and when. If to first order, testing ramps up with disease prevalence then confirmed cases give a fairly good idea but there is room for such an assumption to be wrong so I have no idea how to calculate the level of uncertainty in this case.<br /><br />Still R0 likely to be similar to similar countries with similar lack of controls so why do you think the error bounds need to be much wider?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-40285623410346243822020-04-16T15:09:47.882+01:002020-04-16T15:09:47.882+01:00Can you also predict where China's long tail o...Can you also predict where China's long tail of new daily new cases goes? I guess that is a harder problem that depends a lot on what international travel is allowed and whether contact tracing is sufficient to prevent internal transmission restarting?crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-4706194452506535482020-04-16T14:55:35.656+01:002020-04-16T14:55:35.656+01:00Suppose I should do a better job, there is also:
...Suppose I should do a better job, there is also:<br /><br />page 8 "wth"<br />Fig 2b "for UK" perhaps should be 'for the UK'?<br /><br />page 11 "These results demonstrates"<br />Page 11 "We are have"crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-60788706806650349192020-04-16T14:20:15.341+01:002020-04-16T14:20:15.341+01:00Typo top of page 12 "piblic domain".
(W...Typo top of page 12 "piblic domain".<br /><br />(Well you said you wanted to encourage people to read it.)crandleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15181530527401007161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-72040045074647998872020-04-16T07:35:42.731+01:002020-04-16T07:35:42.731+01:00Projected 720, had 761... That's pretty good f...Projected 720, had 761... That's pretty good for your model.. unfortunate for the people...Nathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12139055978545659341noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-85541460825320599202020-04-16T01:47:47.067+01:002020-04-16T01:47:47.067+01:00I'm curious how for Sweden, 'R0 = 2.5 ± 0....I'm curious how for Sweden, 'R0 = 2.5 ± 0.3' can be estimated accurately with such sparse data (appears to be only about 7 deaths prior to imposing controls).Steve Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16256167637226194489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-43114522875224354682020-04-15T16:43:27.743+01:002020-04-15T16:43:27.743+01:00Cool!!!Cool!!!luciahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12342621789338198739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-75881208647973255262020-04-15T16:42:56.680+01:002020-04-15T16:42:56.680+01:00Do you think you will look at the US?Do you think you will look at the US?KenHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15437615470591736491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-34337882299092779692020-04-15T16:23:54.633+01:002020-04-15T16:23:54.633+01:00Hi James, in Germany we have a similiar situation....Hi James, in Germany we have a similiar situation. A today released "pandemic bulletin" (in German) of the "Robert Koch Institut" ( it's the official department of the German gouvernment!)https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20_SARS-CoV2_vorab.pdf?__blob=publicationFile they show in Fig. 4 the "R estimation" and conclude it's near 1 as of yesterday. Are you able do use the German data to produce a more reliable R-estimation?<br />Thanks in advanceFrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10670464658625758213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9959776.post-69231516290792448932020-04-15T08:35:28.953+01:002020-04-15T08:35:28.953+01:00As you've said, today might be a bit of an out...As you've said, today might be a bit of an outlier - weekend & bank holiday effect for 4 days from Good Friday - Easter MondayPeteBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11719500015671599766noreply@blogger.com